🔄 Bitcoin Cycle Clock

Historical bear cycles, halving patterns, and where we stand today

📍
Current Market Phase
Bear Market
Cycle Score: 29.0 / 100
The Market Cycle Journey
🐂 → 📈 → 😐 → 📊 → 🐻 → 📈 → 🐂
Markets move in predictable cycles. Understanding where you are helps you make smarter decisions.
📋 The Five Phases
🐻
Bear Market
Score: 0–30
Prices down 50–90%. Maximum fear. Smart money quietly accumulates.
Extreme Fear Low Volume DCA time Don't panic sell
✓ Strategy
Preserve capital — cash is a position
Small DCA into quality assets only
Build your watchlist, research projects
Ignore the noise, focus on long-term
✕ Avoid
Trying to call the exact bottom
Panic selling into weakness
Giving up on the asset class
📊
Distribution
Score: 30–45
Smart money exits while retail still buys. Weakness forming beneath apparent strength.
Fading Momentum Divergences Reduce exposure
✓ Strategy
Reduce exposure, take partial profits
Raise cash for the next opportunity
Move to more defensive positions
✕ Avoid
Buying "dips" that keep dipping
Thinking "this time is different"
Holding too long, giving back gains
😐
Consolidation
Score: 45–60
Sideways chop. Direction unclear. Patience is the edge.
Choppy Range-Bound No overtrading
✓ Strategy
Trade the range — buy support, sell resistance
Reduce size due to uncertainty
Wait for clear breakout confirmation
✕ Avoid
Overtrading out of boredom
Getting chopped by false breakouts
Breaking rules out of frustration
📈
Accumulation
Score: 60–75
Smart money enters. Higher lows form. This is where fortunes are built.
Best DCA zone Higher Lows Don't chase pumps
✓ Strategy
DCA into quality — this is the window
Focus on fundamentals over hype
Build positions strategically on dips
✕ Avoid
False breakouts and fake rallies
Going all-in too early
Chasing pumps instead of quality
🐂
Bull Market
Score: 75–100
ATHs, FOMO, euphoria. Hardest phase to exit — but the most critical.
Extreme Greed ATHs Protect gains
✓ Strategy
Take profits gradually on the way up
Tighten stops to protect gains
Reduce position sizes as greed peaks
✕ Avoid
Buying tops due to FOMO
Overconfidence and excess risk
Ignoring risk management
🔬 How the Cycle Score is Calculated
📊 BTC Dominance
Rising = flight to safety (bearish). Falling = altseason potential (bullish).
😨 Fear & Greed
Extreme Fear = opportunity. Extreme Greed = distribute and protect.
📈 Market Cap Trend
Growing = capital flowing in. Shrinking = capital fleeing crypto.
💰 Volume Trends
Increasing = confirming move. Decreasing = losing momentum, caution.
📊 Historical Bear Cycles — BTC
2014 Bear 411 DAYS
Cycle High$1,163
Cycle Low$152
Top DateNov 29, 2013
Bottom DateJan 14, 2015
Drawdown-86.9%
2018 Bear 363 DAYS
Cycle High$20,089
Cycle Low$3,191
Top DateDec 17, 2017
Bottom DateDec 15, 2018
Drawdown-84.1%
2022 Bear 377 DAYS
Cycle High$68,790
Cycle Low$15,782
Top DateNov 10, 2021
Bottom DateNov 22, 2022
Drawdown-77.1%
2025 Current — DAYS
Cycle High$126,198
Current PriceLoading…
Top DateOct 6, 2025
Status⬤ ONGOING
Drawdown so far—
📈 Historical Averages (2014–2022)
Avg Peak-to-Trough Drawdown-82.7%
Avg Days Top to Bottom384 days
Smallest Drawdown (2022)-77.1%
Largest Drawdown (2014)-86.9%
Fastest Bear (2018)363 days
Slowest Bear (2014)411 days
📍 2025 Current Cycle Progress
Drawdown vs historical avg (-82.7%) — of -82.7%
Time vs historical avg (384 days) — of 384 days
📊 Drawdown at Day — vs Prior Bears
2018 Bear
-71.1%
2022 Bear
-69.5%
2025 Bear
—
2018 & 2022 values are approximate drawdowns at the equivalent day from their cycle tops. 2025 updates live.
⛏️ Halving Cycle Context
H1 Nov 28, 2012
Days to Bull Top366 days
Bull TopNov 29, 2013
Days to Bear Bottom777 days
Bear BottomJan 14, 2015
H2 Jul 9, 2016
Days to Bull Top526 days
Bull TopDec 17, 2017
Days to Bear Bottom889 days
Bear BottomDec 15, 2018
H3 May 11, 2020
Days to Bull Top548 days
Bull TopNov 10, 2021
Days to Bear Bottom925 days
Bear BottomNov 22, 2022
H4 Apr 19, 2024
Days to Bull Top535 days ✓
Bull TopOct 6, 2025
Days to Bear Bottom777–925 days*
Est. Bottom WindowJun–Oct 2026
* Based on H2 and H3 range (777–925 days post-halving). H4 + avg (907 days) = ~Oct 13, 2026. The 2025 bull top at 535 days post-halving fits tightly within the H2/H3 range of 526–548 days — consistent with the pattern holding.
📅 Key Dates Timeline
⛏️ Halving H2
Jul 9, 2016
🔺 2018 Cycle Top
Dec 17, 2017 — $20,089
🔻 2018 Bear Bottom
Dec 15, 2018 — $3,191
⛏️ Halving H3
May 11, 2020
🔺 2022 Cycle Top
Nov 10, 2021 — $68,790
🔻 2022 Bear Bottom
Nov 22, 2022 — $15,782
⛏️ Halving H4
Apr 19, 2024
🔺 2025 Cycle Top
Oct 6, 2025 — $126,198
📍 Today
—
🎯 Est. Bottom Window
Jun – Oct 2026 (halving pattern)
⛏️ Halving H5 (est.)
~Apr 2028
💎 Key Lessons
✓ Do This
Buy during fear (bear market and accumulation phases)
Sell during greed (bull market and distribution)
Be patient during consolidation — no edge = no trade
Stick to your risk management plan, always
Think in cycles, not candles
✕ Don't Do This
Buy at tops when the crowd is most excited
Sell at bottoms when panic is loudest
Overtrade choppy consolidation ranges
Go all-in at any single price point
Abandon your plan because of short-term noise
"The market cycle repeats, but emotions stay the same. Master your emotions, master the market."
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