Live derivatives + candles from Deribit (BTC-PERPETUAL). Supply pressure (exchange netflows) requires a premium on-chain provider.
The Bitcoin Market Bias Dashboard is a risk-first indicator that answers one question before every trade: is this an environment where risk should be increased, reduced, or avoided entirely? It does not generate entries, predict prices, or give buy and sell signals. It gives you systematic market context derived from real derivatives data.
Most traders make their biggest mistakes not from bad entries, but from trading the wrong environment — going long into bearish conditions, using full size in choppy markets, or staying in trades when structural demand has collapsed. The bias dashboard addresses this directly by aggregating four market conditions into a single score that tells you what kind of environment you are in.
Derived from the Binance perpetual funding rate. High positive funding means longs are crowded and paying a premium — a warning signal. Neutral or negative funding means positioning is balanced or short-sided, which is healthier for long entries. Extreme positive funding near resistance is one of the most reliable signs of an imminent long squeeze.
Checks whether the market is accepting current prices using two inputs: VWAP position (is price above or below the volume-weighted average?) and 30-day range location (is price in the upper, middle or lower third of the recent range?). High price acceptance — above VWAP in the upper range — is structurally bullish. Low acceptance signals distribution or rejection.
Measures real buying pressure using the 7-day price change and the taker buy/sell ratio. A rising price with taker buys dominant confirms genuine demand-driven movement. A rising price with taker sells dominant is a warning (passive offers absorbing buyers) rather than confirmation. Structural demand separates momentum from real supply/demand imbalance.
Short-term trend strength using a 3-day vs 7-day price comparison and a structural check for higher highs and higher lows. Positive momentum means short-term price action is accelerating upward within the trend. Negative momentum means the trend is losing pace or reversing. Momentum is the leading-edge signal — it often shifts before the longer-term components.
Each component contributes -1 (bearish), 0 (neutral), or +1 (bullish) to the total. The combined score ranges from -3 to +3:
Above the bias score, the Market Evidence panel shows the raw derivatives signals used in the calculation. These give you the granular picture behind the score:
Taker Buy/Sell Ratio — a ratio above 1.0 means aggressive buy orders dominate (genuine demand). Below 1.0 means sell orders dominate. Open Interest Δ — rising OI with rising price confirms a healthy trend; rising OI with flat or falling price signals a leverage trap. Funding Rate — the current 8-hour rate between longs and shorts on Kraken perpetuals. Price vs 7d Avg — shows whether current price is above or below the 7-day mean, indicating short-term positional bias. Basis (Mark vs Spot) — the premium or discount of perpetual mark price versus spot; positive basis means perpetuals are trading rich, which can signal speculative demand rather than real buying.
Below the bias score, the Strategy Permission table translates the current conditions into actionable guidance for each trade type. Each strategy receives one of three statuses. ALLOWED (green) means conditions structurally support this approach — proceed with your normal process. REDUCED (amber) means conditions are mixed — trade if your setup is high quality, but use smaller position size and tighter stops. STANDBY (red) means conditions actively work against this strategy — stay flat regardless of how attractive the individual setup looks on a lower timeframe.
Step 1 — Check bias before chart analysis. Read the current score and the status of each component before opening any chart. This tells you the macro environment and prevents confirmation bias from clouding your analysis. Step 2 — Check the Strategy Permission table. Find your intended strategy type and read its status. If it is on STANDBY, stop. Step 3 — Cross-reference with the Leverage Gate. The BTC Leverage Gate handles the structural EMA200 regime check. Use both tools together — BTC Bias for current derivatives conditions, Leverage Gate for macro structure. Step 4 — Size correctly. Use the position size calculator to determine exact size based on your account, stop distance and the risk posture shown on this dashboard. Never size a trade without a calculated stop.
⚠️ Not financial advice. The BTC Market Bias Dashboard provides market context for educational purposes. It does not generate trade entries or guarantee outcomes. All data from Binance API. Always use a defined stop loss and correct position sizing. Never risk capital you cannot afford to lose.