What's normal from here and how much room a trade needs
Every stat is shown next to its unconditional baseline and counts independent episodes, not overlapping days. A number only matters when it differs from the baseline.
- Trade check: the one-paragraph read. If you only look at one thing, look here.
- Regime: bull or bear? Everything below is read in that light.
- Nearest cross: is a headline signal close, and what did it usually lead to?
- Pullback and volatility: how far can price move against you while nothing is wrong? This sets your stop and size.
- Extension and momentum: are you early, late, or chasing?
1Trade check
- Computing…
Stop & size from current volatility
Regime is the single most useful word on this page. A 200-day moving average below price, with the shorter averages stacked on top of it, means the trend is up on every horizon. The same dip, streak or cross means something different in a bull regime than in a bear one, so check this first.
3Nearest cross
Which moving-average cross is closest, and what happened after every prior one.
What a golden cross is: the 50-day average climbing above the 200-day. It gets headlines because it means the last two months have been strong enough to lift the average over a whole year's worth of prices. A death cross is the reverse.
Why it disappoints people: the signal fires after a move, so the market is usually due a breather. Most prior crosses saw price come back through the cross level within a month before the bigger move resumed. Traders who buy the headline with a tight stop get shaken out first.
The bars: each pair is one past cross. Red is the worst close in the following 30 days; green is where price was 3 months later. Amber means the cross reversed within 90 days. Click any cross above to see its history.
4Expected pullback in this regime
Where the stop goes. Pullbacks (on closes, ≥5%) that happened while price stayed above a rising 200-day.
What a pullback is: a drop from a recent high inside an uptrend that doesn't end it. Bull markets are made of them.
The chart: every past bull-regime pullback sorted by depth. The cyan bar is where today's sits. If most sit deeper than your stop, your stop is a bet on this dip being shallower than most.
5Volatility percentile
Sets position size and stop width. 14-day ATR as a share of price, ranked against all history.
What ATR is: ATR measures how big a typical day is. 2% means price usually swings about 2% a day. Percentile says how that compares with every day since 2014.
Why it matters: stops and size should scale with volatility. A 3% stop is generous when ATR is 1.5% and a coin-flip when it's 5%. Quiet periods also tend to end with a big move, in either direction.
6Extension from the 200-day
Are you chasing? Today's distance from the 200-day SMA against every day since 2014.
What extension is: how far price is above (or below) its 200-day average. Price tends to drift back toward the average over time, like a stretched band.
The two boxes: left is what followed past days that looked like today; right is what follows any day. If they're nearly the same, today's reading tells you nothing extra.
7Momentum context
Is the wind behind you? Trailing return by horizon, and what followed similar readings vs baseline.
What momentum is: what's been going up tends to keep going for a while. Grey bars are how far BTC has moved over each trailing window. Cyan is the 20-day return that typically followed readings like that; the faded bar is the everyday baseline.
Honest caveat: in Bitcoin the effect is modest, strongest over one to four weeks, and has weakened since 2020. Treat it as a tailwind or headwind, never as the reason for a trade.
More context — streaks, drawdown from ATH, halving cycle
Daily candle streak
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Drawdown from all-time high
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Halving cycle
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Glossary
- Moving average (SMA / EMA)
- The average closing price over the last N days. EMA weights recent days more heavily, so it turns faster.
- Regime
- The big-picture trend state — bull when price sits above a rising 200-day average, bear when below.
- Golden / death cross
- A faster average crossing above (golden) or below (death) a slower one.
- Drawdown / pullback
- How far price fell from a high. A pullback is one that happens inside a trend that survives it.
- Percentile
- Where today's reading ranks against all history. 90th = higher than 90% of past days.
- Median
- The middle outcome. Used instead of the average so one extreme event doesn't distort it.
- Baseline
- What happens after any random day. A stat is only useful when it differs from this.
- n / episodes
- How many independent past events the stat is built on. Under ~20, treat it as anecdote.
- ATR
- Average size of a daily candle. The standard way to scale stops and position size to current conditions.
- Extension
- Percentage distance between price and a moving average.
Daily closes from Sept 2014. Nothing here is a recommendation — it's what has usually happened, with the sample size attached so you can judge how much to trust it.