Category breakdown
Tap a category for indicatorsHistory
- History builds from launch.
How the Risk Engine works
Think of the Risk Engine as a weather forecast for markets. Instead of telling you what to buy or sell, it answers one simpler question every day: are conditions right now friendly or hostile to taking risk? It boils everything down to a single score from 0 to 100 — the higher the score, the more supportive the environment.
What goes into the score
Every day the engine reads live market data and grades seven things, each on its own 0–100 scale:
- Liquidity — how much money is flowing through the financial system. More money sloshing around generally lifts markets; a strengthening dollar or rising short-term rates drains it.
- Credit markets — are lenders relaxed or nervous? When investors demand extra interest to lend to riskier companies, that gap ("spread") widens — an early warning sign that often moves before stock prices do.
- Market sentiment — the mood of the crowd, measured by the VIX "fear gauge" and the Crypto Fear & Greed index. Both panic and euphoria are treated as warning signs.
- Economic growth — is the real economy expanding? Jobless claims and the copper-to-gold ratio (copper rises when factories are busy, gold when investors hide) give a fast read.
- Inflation — are prices stable? Markets like inflation that is boring. Too hot squeezes central banks into tightening; too cold hints at a stalling economy — both score poorly.
- Geopolitical risk — is the world calm? Oil-price volatility and a rush into gold are classic signs of investors bracing for trouble.
- AI news read — an AI reads the day's financial headlines and scores the overall tone from crisis to calm, catching stories the numbers haven't priced in yet.
How the seven become one number
The seven scores are blended into a weighted average — the money-flow categories (liquidity and credit) count the most, the news read the least. That raw number is then smoothed over five days, so a single noisy session can't whipsaw the signal.
Reading the signal
BUY RISK (70+) — conditions broadly support taking on risk. HOLD (40–69) — no clear edge either way; stay the course. SELL RISK (below 40) — the environment is hostile; consider reducing exposure. A built-in buffer stops the signal flip-flopping when the score hovers near a boundary, and a severe geopolitical shock can cap the signal no matter how good everything else looks. The confidence chip tells you how much to trust today's reading — it is highest when all seven categories reported fresh data, agree with each other, and the score is sitting well clear of a decision boundary.
Technical details
Category weights: liquidity 22, credit 22, sentiment 16, growth 16, inflation 12, geopolitical 12, AI news 10 (re-weighted if a category is missing). The composite is a 5-day exponential moving average. Signal hysteresis: enter BUY at ≥72 and leave below 68; enter SELL at ≤38 and leave above 42. A geopolitical score below 20 caps the smoothed composite at 55. Confidence = 40% data completeness + 40% category agreement + 20% distance from the 70/40 thresholds. Data sources include the Federal Reserve (FRED), CBOE volatility indices, credit spread indices, metals and energy prices, and a curated set of financial news feeds. The engine runs once daily, shortly after 5am UK time.
This is a description of macro conditions, not financial advice or a buy/sell recommendation on any asset. It tells you what the environment is allowing — the decision is yours.