What This Tool Does
The Strategy Performance Projector takes the metrics from your TradingView Strategy Tester and extrapolates them forward using compounding. Rather than showing a simple "if everything stays the same" linear projection, it models realistic scenario ranges and lets you log actual balance checkpoints to see whether your live trading is tracking above or below the projected curve.
It is designed for traders who have developed and backtested a strategy in TradingView and want to understand the long-term capital growth potential — while being clear that backtested performance does not reliably predict live results.
📊 TradingView Metrics Import
Enter win rate, profit factor, average win %, average loss %, total trades, and the historical period dates directly from TradingView's Strategy Tester.
🔮 Forward Projection
Projects your strategy's historical trade frequency and per-trade returns forward over any number of months, compounding each trade's result on the current balance.
🐻 🐂 Scenario Analysis
Shows bear (-10%), base (expected), and bull (+10%) outcome ranges so you can plan conservatively rather than relying on a single optimistic projection.
⚡ Leverage Modelling
Apply 1x–20x leverage to see how it amplifies both gains and risks. Useful for evaluating whether a leveraged approach to your strategy is justifiable.
✅ Progress Checkpoints
Log your actual account balance at any date and compare it against the projected balance for that point — immediately seeing if you are ahead or behind the model.
💾 Strategy Save & Load
Save multiple strategies to your account and reload them at any time. Compare different strategy configurations side by side via the Strategy Tracker.
How to Use the Strategy Projector
Step 1 — Get Your Metrics from TradingView
Open TradingView and apply your Pine Script strategy to a chart. Click the Strategy Tester tab at the bottom of the screen, then open the Performance Summary. You will find: Percent Profitable (win rate), Profit Factor, Average Winning Trade %, and Average Losing Trade %. Also note the start and end dates of your backtest period and the total number of trades.
Step 2 — Enter the Metrics
Enter these figures into the form. The tool calculates your strategy's average trades per month from the total trades and period length, then uses this to estimate how many trades will occur in the projection window. Each trade's result is compounded onto the current balance rather than applied as a flat percentage of starting capital.
Step 3 — Set Your Projection Parameters
Enter your starting capital, projection length in months, and optionally apply leverage. The projection start date defaults to your period end date so projections begin from where your backtest left off — or set it to today to project from the current date.
Step 4 — Review the Scenarios
The base case projects exactly at your backtested rate. The bear scenario reduces performance by 10% (a useful conservative planning baseline — real live trading typically underperforms backtest). The bull scenario adds 10% for upside context. Use the bear projection as your baseline for any capital planning decisions.
Understanding the Key Metrics
Win Rate
% of trades that close profitably. A 55% win rate with 2:1 R:R is solidly profitable. 40–60% is realistic for most strategies.
Profit Factor
Gross profit ÷ gross loss. Above 1.5 is considered good; above 2.0 is strong. Below 1.0 means the strategy is losing.
Average Win %
Mean return on winning trades as % of position. This drives the upside of the projection compounding.
Average Loss %
Mean loss on losing trades (enter as negative). Combined with win rate determines overall expectancy.
Projection Period
How many months forward to model. The tool extrapolates your historical trades-per-month rate over this window.
Leverage
Multiplies returns in both directions. 3x leverage triples both gains and losses — significantly increasing drawdown risk.
⚠️ Important: All projections produced by this tool are illustrative estimates based on historical backtest performance. They assume consistent future performance at the same rate — which real markets do not deliver. Live trading results will typically differ from backtest results due to slippage, changing market conditions, execution delays, and psychological factors. This tool does not constitute financial advice. Never risk capital you cannot afford to lose.
Common Questions
How do I find my strategy metrics in TradingView?
Open TradingView and apply your Pine Script strategy to a chart. Click the Strategy Tester tab at the bottom of the screen. Under the Performance Summary tab you will find: Percent Profitable (your win rate), Profit Factor, Average Winning Trade %, Average Losing Trade %, Total Closed Trades, and the period dates. Copy these figures directly into the projector.
What is profit factor and what is a good number?
Profit factor is gross profit divided by gross loss over the backtest period. A profit factor of 2.0 means the strategy earned twice as much on winners as it lost on losers. Above 1.5 is considered solid; above 2.0 is strong. Below 1.0 means the strategy is net negative. Profit factor should always be considered alongside win rate, drawdown, and the number of trades — a high profit factor from only 10 trades carries far less statistical weight than one from 200+ trades.
Are the projections accurate or guaranteed?
No. All projections are illustrative estimates that extrapolate historical backtest metrics forward at the same rate. Real live trading performance will differ — often significantly — due to changing market conditions, slippage, execution differences between backtesting and live, and the simple fact that past performance does not guarantee future results. The bear scenario (-10%) is a useful conservative planning baseline. Treat all projections as planning guides, not forecasts. This tool does not constitute financial advice.
Why does live trading usually underperform backtests?
Backtesting applies a strategy to historical data in ideal conditions: orders fill instantly at the exact candle close price, there is no slippage, no spread cost, and no emotional hesitation. In live trading, orders fill at slightly different prices (slippage), spreads apply on entry and exit, you may miss signals, and real drawdowns are psychologically harder to sit through than ones shown on a chart in hindsight. A strategy with 70% win rate in backtest may achieve 55–60% live. Use the bear scenario as your baseline for conservative planning.
What do the bear, base, and bull scenarios represent?
The scenario analysis shows three planning outcomes: bear (-10% on projected returns — a conservative baseline accounting for live trading underperformance), base (exactly at the backtested rate — the expected case if performance is perfectly consistent), and bull (+10% — upside potential if conditions are favourable). These are illustrative planning ranges, not statistically derived confidence intervals. Bear should be treated as the minimum expected outcome when making any capital allocation decisions.
How does leverage affect the projection?
Leverage multiplies both gains and losses proportionally. At 3x leverage, a 2% average win becomes 6% and a 1% average loss becomes 3% — dramatically increasing projected ROI but also increasing drawdown depth and liquidation risk. The projector models leverage as a simple return multiplier and does not account for funding rates, margin calls, or liquidation. Always ensure real stop losses are well above your liquidation price. Treat leveraged projections with particular caution.
How do I use the progress checkpoints?
After calculating a projection, the progress tracking section lets you log your actual account balance at specific dates. The tool compares each logged balance to the projected balance for that date, showing whether you are ahead or behind the model. This is useful for long-term accountability — it makes strategy underperformance visible early so you can investigate and adjust rather than discovering a problem months later.